H.R.3633 — the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Every status line below comes from the Government Publishing Office's official bill record, not from anyone's optimism. When something moves here, it moved in Washington — and this page will have it before the videos do.
| Cleared | Date |
|---|---|
| ✓ Passed the House | 2025-07-17 |
| ✓ Senate Banking Committee advanced it, 15–9 | 2026-05-14 |
| ✓ Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar (No. 423) | 2026-06-01 |
| Remaining | Gate |
|---|---|
| Reconcile with the Senate Agriculture Committee's version | 1 of 4 |
| 60-vote Senate floor passage | 2 of 4 |
| Reconcile the Senate text with the House-passed version | 3 of 4 |
| Presidential signature | 4 of 4 |
The desk's read:a floor vote — the one being predicted for “next week” — is gate 2 of 4. It is not currently on any published schedule; the bill sits eligible on the Senate calendar. Optimistic statements from members are real and we log them, but a statement is not a scheduled vote, and a passed Senate bill is still two reconciliations and a signature away from law. That is neither bullish nor bearish; it is just the record.
| Date | Action |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | Pursuant to the provisions of H.Res. 1131, H.Res. 707 is amended. |
| 2025-06-03 | Referred to the Committee on Financial Services, and in addition to the Committee on Agriculture, for a period to be subsequently determined by the Speaker, in each case for consideration of such provisions as fall within the jurisdiction of the committee concerned. |
| 2025-07-16 | On agreeing to the resolution Agreed to by recorded vote: 217 - 212 (Roll no. 198). |
| 2026-06-01 | Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 423. |
| 2026-06-01 | Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Reported by Senator Scott SC, with an amendment in the nature of a substitute. Without written report. |
| 2025-07-17 | Motion to reconsider laid on the table Agreed to without objection. |
| 2025-07-17 | On passage Passed by the Yeas and Nays: 294 - 134 (Roll no. 199). (text of amendment in the nature of a substitute: CR H3373-3397) |
| 2025-07-17 | Passed/agreed to in House: On passage Passed by the Yeas and Nays: 294 - 134 (Roll no. 199). |
Source: govinfo.gov BILLSTATUS for H.R.3633 (119th Congress), refreshed every few hours · record last updated 2026-06-11 · market odds from public prediction-market data, logged to our database on every refresh.
“When it passes, XRP ramps up” is a story. Here is the arithmetic version: the market currently pays 30¢ on the dollar for passage this year — meaning a meaningful share of “the Clarity pump” is already in today's price, and the surprise content of passage is what would move it. Our odds desk prices the destination (will XRP hit $2? 21.7%), the multiplier page prices the mechanism, and when this bill clears or misses its gates, the reaction joins our event-study record — so next time, the base rate is ours to publish.
Every “will XRP hit $2?” number on this site quietly averages over the year's biggest coin flip: does the Clarity Act become law or not. Here we split that average apart. Same odds engine, same history — the only thing that changes between the two columns is one assumption: that passage gives XRP one repricing day like its biggest days actually looked.
| Will XRP touch… | If Clarity stalls into 2027 | If it passes this year | Blended by the market's 30% |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.50 by Dec 31 | 41% | 66% | 48% |
| $2.00 by Dec 31 | 20% | 31% | 23% |
| $3.00 by Dec 31 | 18% | 19% | 18% |
Read it plainly: passage helps the modest targets a lot ($1.50 jumps from 41.1% to 66.0%) and the dream targets barely at all ($3.00 moves from 18.1% to 18.6%) — one good day, even a historic one, does not carry a coin to almost three times its price. Anyone promising otherwise is pricing a story, not a distribution.
The headline claim, priced three ways: a new all-time high ($3.84, a 3.5× move) within 30 days of passage
| If passage trades like… | The precedent says | P(ATH within 30 days) |
|---|---|---|
| …XRP's own legal wins (“relief”) | 0 for 3: every pop fully retraced within a month | 1.4% |
| …one repricing day that sticks (our standing assumption) | +18.7% day, then normal volatility | 1.8% |
| …an ignition regime (the election precedent) | 0 of 6 past ignition episodes reached a 3.5× within 30 days — the best (Nov 2024) managed 3.05× | unprecedented on this clock |
The structural case that this time differs — stated, because it is real: the legal wins removed a threat; passage opens a door, giving every regulated institution legal rails into this market from that day forward. The one measured access event in crypto — the Bitcoin spot ETFs — sold off first, sat flat at day 30, then printed a new all-time high on day 63 as the flows arrived. If Clarity trades like an access event, the honest expectation is not day 30 — it is the quarters after, and it will show up first on the ETF desk's flow numbers, not in the headlines. The full receipts live in the study library.
The three ingredients, all published: the chance of passage is the prediction market's live 30% — never our guess about Washington · the repricing assumption is +18.7%, the median of the 10 largest single-day gains in our own price history (2025-03-02 +34%, 2024-11-16 +26%, 2026-02-06 +21%…) · both columns run over the same 154 days to Dec 31, so the repricing is the only difference between them · tonight's numbers are logged, and when the Clarity question resolves, whichever column reality picked becomes a graded forecast on the record like everything else here.
News gets paid for in advance. Every trader who believes this bill passes has already bought; that belief is sitting in today's price right now. So the day it actually passes, the price does not get the whole move — only the part nobody has paid for yet. Here is that split, in numbers.
| The receipts — each past milestone | Date | XRP that day | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passed the House | 2025-07-17 | +14.6% | a rare 1-in-62 day |
| Senate Banking Committee advanced it, 15–9 | 2026-05-14 | +4.1% | somewhat unusual — a 1-in-5 day |
| Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar (No. 423) | 2026-06-01 | -2.7% | an ordinary day |
The desk's read: the receipts show the meter working: the House vote coincided with a 1-in-62 day, the committee win with a modest pop, and making the Senate calendar with… an ordinary down day. Each cleared gate moved the price less, because each was more expected than the last. We say “coincided” deliberately — the tape moves first, reasons get assigned later.
Ingredients shared with the branch table above: the market's live 30% chance of passage, and the measured +18.7% repricing assumption (median of the ten biggest single-day gains in our history) · already-paid = odds × repricing; remainder = the rest · “how unusual” ranks that day's move against every daily move in our tape · when the Clarity question resolves, the realized move gets compared to these numbers in public, win or lose.
Rep. Bryan Steil · Chairman, Digital Assets Subcommittee — House FSC field hearing, Federal Hall, New York · 2026-07-17
“I'm optimistic that we get this across the line next week in the United States Senate.” — Field hearing: 'Building the Future of Finance: How CLARITY Act Unlocks Innovation', July 17, 2026 ↗ — checkable by 2026-07-26; outcome will be recorded here.
Brad Garlinghouse · Ripple CEO (University of Kansas fireside) · 2026-07-16
“Our US business was very stagnant for about five years. That's changed now.” — Fireside chat, University of Kansas (July 2026 — recording not yet independently indexed; quote from event footage)
Sen. Mark Warner · Senate Banking Committee · 2026-02-12
“I'm in crypto hell… I want America to lead in digital assets.” — Remarks on reviving the market-structure bill (first reported Feb 2026; the clip recirculates with each Clarity push) ↗
Officials and executives speaking in public capacity only, quoted verbatim, dated, and — where a statement is checkable — graded when the date arrives. The ledger records; it does not editorialize.
| Day class | Sample | Median move that day | Ordinary day | The verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC decision days | 21 days | ±1.5% | ±1.7% | no different from an ordinary day — the calendar fear is not in this tape |
| CPI release days | 32 days | ±2.4% | ±1.7% | has run ~1.4× an ordinary day |
| Escrow-unlock days (the 1st) | 32 days | ±2.2% | ±1.7% | has run ~1.3× an ordinary day |
next FOMC decision: 2026-07-29 (in 0 days) · next CPI release: 2026-08-12 (in 14 days) · next escrow unlock: 2026-08-01 (in 3 days)
Method: absolute close-to-close move on the event day vs every other day in the same tape (Oct 2023 onward), medians, sample sizes shown — the ordinary-day column is the null, and when the null wins we say so. Dates verified against the Federal Reserve meeting calendar and the BLS release schedule, including its archived 2023–2025 editions; the Sep-2025 CPI was released Oct 24 after the government shutdown and the Oct-2025 report was never published. Escrow-unlock dates are protocol-certain.
On the 1st of each month Ripple's escrows release on a schedule enforced by the ledger itself — no announcement, no discretion. The headline number is the gross unlock; the number that matters is what stays out after Ripple re-locks the remainder. Both are below, read directly from the XRP Ledger.
| Month | Unlocked | Re-locked | Net release | Of circulating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 1000M | 700M | +300M | 0.48% |
| 2026-06 | 1000M | 700M | +300M | 0.48% |
| 2026-05 | 1000M | 700M | +300M | 0.48% |
| 2026-04 | 1000M | 700M | +300M | 0.48% |
| 2026-03 | 1000M | 700M | +300M | 0.48% |
| 2026-02 | 1000M | 700M | +300M | 0.48% |
What it has meant for the price: escrow-unlock days have run ~1.3× an ordinary day's move (the measured multiplier in the calendar table above) — real, but a far cry from the monthly “1B dump incoming” alarm. The net release has been a steady ~300M XRP (~0.5% of circulating) for over a year, and it is the most pre-announced supply event in crypto: the schedule below the headline is enforced by the ledger, not by a press office.
Source: EscrowFinish and EscrowCreate transactions plus live escrow objects, read from the XRP Ledger via full-history public nodes, across 24 Ripple escrow accounts (seeded from on-ledger escrow holdings, expanded by following the 50M+ XRP funding chain between owner accounts; explorer attributions used as reference only, every fact ledger-verified). History accrues in our database on the flows cadence; record last updated 2026-07-29.
| Fund | Latest filing | Filed | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitwise XRP ETF (XRP) | 10-Q | 2026-05-08 | operating — files periodic reports |
| Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) | 10-Q | 2026-05-13 | operating — files periodic reports |
| Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) | 10-K | 2026-06-29 | operating — files periodic reports |
| 21Shares XRP ETF (TOXR) | 424B3 | 2026-07-07 | operating — files periodic reports |
| Grayscale XRP Trust ETF (GXRP) | 144 | 2026-07-28 | operating — files periodic reports |
| Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW) | 424B3 | 2026-06-01 | operating — files periodic reports |
| Grayscale CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF (GDLC) | 8-K | 2026-07-02 | operating — files periodic reports |
| REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) | NPORT-P | 2026-07-29 | operating — files periodic reports |
Every row links to the filing itself on SEC EDGAR — when a new fund's S-1 lands or a registration goes effective, it appears here on the same refresh that catches it. Holdings and flows for all tracked funds, including the European ETPs and Canadian funds that file with their own regulators, live on the ETF desk.
Source: SEC EDGAR submissions API and full-text search, refreshed every few hours · REX-Osprey XRP ETF files as a series of ETF Opportunities Trust, so its rows come from full-text search scoped to the fund name · filings history accrues in our database · record last fetched 2026-07-29.
| Case | Court | Docket | Filed | Status on the record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doe v. Larsen | NYSD | 1:25-cv-06020 | 2025-07-22 | open on the record |
| Securities and Exchange Commission v. Ripple Labs Inc. | CA2 | 24-2705 | 2024-10-15 | open on the record |
| Securities and Exchange Commission v. Ripple Labs Inc. | CA2 | 24-2648 | 2024-10-04 | open on the record |
| Securities and Exchange Commission v. Ripple Labs Inc. | NYSD | 1:20-cv-10832 | 2020-12-22 | closed 2024-08-07 |
How to read this: every federal case has a running public file called a docket. Courts do not announce endings — when a case is over, the clerk adds a closing entry to that file, and until one appears the case is “open on the record.” We read these files from RECAP, a public copy of the courts' own PACER system, and that copy can run behind the courthouse — appeals especially. So an “open” row means exactly this and no more: the public file shows no closing entry yet. It is not a prediction that anything will happen, and it does not revive the case that defined this asset — SEC v. Ripple Labs, 1:20-cv-10832, closed on the district record since 2024-08-07. If any open case produces a scheduled court date, that date joins the catalyst calendar above.
Source: CourtListener/RECAP (the Free Law Project's public copy of federal court records), matched on Ripple Labs as a named party, refreshed twice daily, every row linked to its full docket · dates are the public record's, stated as such · docket history accrues in our database · last fetched 2026-07-29.
The XRP Forecast publishes probability, not advice. Every figure is measured from the market's own record, published before the fact, and graded after — wrong sometimes, honest always. © 2026.